From Zero-Covid to Zero-Control - Global Issues

Statement by Jan Servaes (Brussels)Wednesday 4 January 2023Inter Press Service

BRUSSELS, Jan 04 (IPS) – Three years after the coronavirus first emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan, the Chinese government began abruptly scrapping its strict containment policy known as “zero-Covid” in December.

This zero Covid policy relied on strict lockdowns, the use of a Covid tracking app, domestic travel restrictions and quarantining those who tested positive along with their close contacts. But the strategy isolated the country from the rest of the world and dealt a severe blow to the world’s second largest economy.

The government announced that from Jan. 8, the mandatory quarantine on arrival for travelers to China will end, and Chinese people will be able to travel abroad again after three years.

The move followed unprecedented protests against the policies championed by President Xi Jinping, in what was the strongest display of public opposition in his decades-long presidency and is reminiscent in many minds of the 1989 Tiananmen Square tragedy.

“What matters is that we reach consensus through communication and consultation. When China’s 1.4 billion people work with one heart and one mind and stand together with a strong will, no task will be impossible and no difficulty will be insurmountable,” Xi said in his New Year’s message, which was broadcast nationwide.

“We have now entered a new phase of the COVID response in which difficult challenges remain. All hold fast with great strength, and the light of hope is right before us. Let’s make extra efforts to pull through, as perseverance and solidarity mean victory.”

The question is: How many Chinese will still put up with this harsh language after hospitals have been hit by a tidal wave of mostly older patients since the lifting of the zero-Covid policy, crematoria are overloaded and many pharmacies no longer have medicines -viruses- and fever medication.

Initially, photos and video fragments of these harrowing conditions were censored, but recently even China Daily reported on them. The extent of the outbreak remains unclear for now, and the lack of transparency can be attributed to strict censorship and the fact that government officials have stopped reporting asymptomatic cases and introduced a new definition of Covid-related deaths.

China says only patients with the virus who die of pneumonia and respiratory failure still meet the criteria. The National Health Commission (NHC) further announced that it is no longer publishing an official daily Covid death toll.

In addition, state-run Xinhua News Agency reported that from Jan. 8, China will lower its priority treatment of Covid-19 cases and treat them as Class B infection rather than the more severe Class A infection. Liang Wannian, head of the expert panel on COVID-19 response under the NHC, said the postponement does not mean China is letting go of the virus but is instead focusing more resources on rural areas to contain the epidemic.

According to Nikola Davis, science correspondent for The Guardian, China is experiencing this surge for a number of reasons. The easing of restrictions has allowed the virus to continue to spread. Also, the slow vaccination campaign across much of China, coupled with the use of the less effective, locally made Sinovac vaccine, means the population has little protection and many vulnerable people are still at risk from the virus.

Additionally, the severe restrictions previously in place mean few people have contracted Covid before. This means there is little natural immunity at play in the current wave.

As a result, many people are now contracting Covid at the same time and requiring hospital treatment, putting increasing pressure on the healthcare system. Added to this is the inadequate medical infrastructure (there is still a great lack of intensive care beds and well-trained staff) and poor general hygiene (clean toilets, washing hands, etc.).

The ink of my post on “China: From a Health Crisis to a Political Crisis?” Barely dry, my fears were realised: China is in the midst of an unstoppable wave of Covid. Chinese authorities estimate that about 250 million people, or 18 percent of the population, contracted the COVID-19 virus in the first 20 days of December.

Despite this surge, the government insists on getting the rising infections and circulating variants under control. However, these “official” figures do not seem to correspond to the reality on the ground.

You will continue to grope in the dark about the correct numbers. The Chinese government and the so-called Worldometer still only count 5250 Covid deaths, while the World Health Organization (WHO) recently published the number of 31,585.

Some academic friends and former students, while not epidemiologists, whisper that up to 60% of Chinese have been or have been exposed to Covid.

Airfinity, a British company that analyzes health risks worldwide, also comes with worrying numbers. They currently estimate 11,000 daily deaths and 1.8 million infections per day in China, while 1.7 million deaths are expected by the end of April 2023.

The researchers say their model is based on data from China’s regional provinces before changes in infection reporting, combined with case growth rates from other former-Covid-zero countries.

It is feared that the numbers will continue to rise in the coming weeks. Especially around Chinese New Year on January 22, when almost everyone in China is visiting friends and family.

Is Xi Jinping firmly in the saddle?

Xi Jinping secured a historic third term as head of state in October, becoming China’s most powerful ruler since Mao Zedong. He thus consolidated his power in a process that began a decade ago, a concentration that has steered China in a more authoritarian direction and that critics warn increases the risk of political missteps.

2022 ended with unprecedented street protests, followed by the sudden reversal of the zero-Covid policy and coronavirus infections sweeping through the world’s most populous country. This, together with the sluggish economy, has damaged its image considerably.

China has been the world’s leading economic engine and hub of industrial supply chains for decades. The World Bank and other experts expect the reopening of China’s economy to boost growth to 4.3% in 2023, compared to the 2.7% forecast for 2022.

This is still appropriate in an international comparison, but remains below the official target value of around 5.5%. Stifled consumption and disrupted supply chains continue to weigh on the crisis in the huge real estate sector. A prolonged economic slowdown or new logistical concerns, whether due to COVID or geopolitical tensions, could resonate around the world.

Beijing’s relations with the West soured over Xi’s partnership with Moscow just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, as well as rising tensions over US-backed Taiwan, which China considers part of its territory.

Xi traveled abroad for the first time since the pandemic began in September, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In November, he met US President Joe Biden at the G20 summit in Indonesia, where the two sides sought to cement ties.

According to Chinese diplomacy, a recent phone call between China’s new Foreign Minister Qin Gang (the outgoing ambassador to Washington and Xi’s confidant) and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken smoothed the lines.

Diplomatically, Xi appears to be attempting to ease some of the tensions that have strained relations with the West, even as Beijing seeks to strengthen its position as a counterbalance to the post-World War II US-led order. Xi’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia and meetings with Gulf state officials could be seen in this context.

But there are also rumblings within the government and the all-powerful Communist Party (CCP). Leaked excerpts from an internal policy brief published in the Sydney Morning Herald and recently discussed in a Politburo say that “the zero Covid dynamic was an unqualified success, demonstrating the superiority of the Chinese communist system over the cowardly and immoral West , but that it can now be brushed aside because omicron is ‘just like the flu'”.

“We must resolutely follow the party line. We must never deviate from the notes,” Xi told the Politburo during the “self-criticism” session, a Maoist practice that is back in fashion.

Authoritarian regimes with near-absolute control over the media can sometimes facilitate breathtakingly destructive politics. It’s hard to imagine a policy more out of whack than suddenly exposing an under-vaccinated population to massive infection in the middle of winter, just before the Chinese New Year’s big internal migration.

Bravery seems to be one of Xi Jinping’s principles, as he affirmed in his New Year’s letter: “Everyone stands firm with great bravery, and the light of hope is right before us.”

Jan Servaes was the UNESCO Chair in Communication for Sustainable Social Change at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. He has taught International Communications in Australia, Belgium, China, Hong Kong, the USA, the Netherlands and Thailand, in addition to short-term projects at around 120 universities in 55 countries. He is the editor of the 2020 Handbook on Communication for Development and Social Change. https://link.springer.com/referencework/10.1007/978-981-10-7035-8

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